This analysis is based on the Deloitte Swiss Watch Industry Study 2025 – “Time under Pressure” (published October 2025), export statistics from the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry FH (January-May 2026), and the Deloitte press release of 8 October 2025. All charts below are sourced from these publications and recreated for editorial clarity. We are publishing this now – several months after its original release – because the data has only grown more relevant, not less. And because the early 2026 FHS numbers let us read where things are actually heading.
The Industry in One Sentence
The Swiss watch industry is navigating the most complex environment in recent memory – not from a single shock, but from the slow accumulation of pressure on every front simultaneously: tariffs, a strong franc, softening demand, retail restructuring, and a generational shift in who buys watches and why.
That is the central finding of Deloitte Switzerland’s eleventh annual Swiss Watch Industry Study, “Time under Pressure,” published in October 2025. The research draws on interviews and an online survey of 111 senior industry executives, plus a parallel consumer survey of 6,500 respondents across Switzerland and the top Swiss watch export markets – China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Singapore, UAE, UK, and USA.
For those of us in the microbrand world, the findings are simultaneously worrying and encouraging. The headwinds hammering the big houses have opened meaningful space for independent brands. But the same headwinds can crush a small operation that isn’t watching the signals. Here is what the data actually says – and what it means for us.
Setting the Scene: From Peak to Pressure
2023 marked the high-water mark for Swiss watchmaking. Export revenues hit a record CHF 26.7 billion. By 2024, the hangover had arrived. Total export earnings dropped nearly 3% from 2023, and volume fell 10% – roughly 1.5 million fewer watches sold globally. The decline was concentrated in the entry-to-mid segment: watches exported at under CHF 3,000 (retail CHF 6,000-8,000) saw earnings fall 16%. Higher price segments held up better, recording a 1% gain in value even as volumes dipped 4%.
In the first half of 2025, a brief rebound at Watches & Wonders in April lifted spirits, but the mood didn’t last. By August 2025, the overall picture for the year’s first eight months showed a -1% decline year-on-year – and that modest decline masks a major distortion.
Source: Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry FH / Deloitte Swiss Watch Industry Study 2025
The Tariff Hit
In August 2025, the United States – which had been the single largest export market for Swiss watches since 2021, accounting for CHF 4.4 billion (16.8% of all Swiss watch exports in 2024) – imposed a 39% import tariff on Swiss goods, up from an initial 10% grace period tariff introduced in April.
The shock sent brands and retailers scrambling. In April 2025, exports to the US surged +150% compared to the same period in 2023. In July they spiked again +45%. These were brands and retailers front-loading inventory before the full tariff took effect. Strip out that pre-tariff stockpiling, and the underlying trend was already a -1% annual decline.
The consequences are now visible in the FHS January-May 2026 data. US exports in the first five months of 2026 fell to CHF 1,830M – down 18.5% versus the same period in 2025 (which itself was inflated by the pre-tariff rush). Compared to January-May 2024, however, US exports are actually up 4.7%, which underlines how severe the 2025 distortion was.
Source: Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry FH, June 2026
The French surge (+53.9% in Jan-May 2026) likely reflects a combination of European tourist buying and brand-level inventory routing adjustments as supply chains adapt to the new US tariff reality. It is the kind of number that looks dramatic in isolation but tells a structural story about how Swiss brands are rerouting product flows.
More significant for the long term: India is up 32.7% year-on-year in Jan-May 2026, continuing its rise to become the fastest-growing major market. Mexico is up 21.0% – a market Deloitte featured for the first time in a dedicated chapter in the 2025 study, and one we will return to.
The Executive Mood: Cautious but Not Paralyzed
When Deloitte surveyed 111 industry executives in July 2025 – before the 39% tariff was confirmed – 43% rated the economic outlook for their main export markets as negative. Only 23% held a positive view. That was before things got harder.
Source: Deloitte industry survey 2025
The pessimism is heavily segment-dependent. For watches above CHF 50,000, 64% of executives see the outlook as positive. For the CHF 10,000-50,000 luxury band, sentiment is mixed, with 38% neutral and 32% positive. For entry-level (under CHF 1,500) and mid-range (CHF 1,500-10,000), around 60% rate the outlook as negative. This is the clearest expression of the premiumisation dynamic that has shaped Swiss watchmaking for a decade – and which the tariff environment is now accelerating.
What are executives doing about it? The top strategic priority for brand executives in 2025 is introducing new products (82%), followed by organic growth (61%), expansion into new markets (52%), and cost reduction – which surged from 11% in 2023 to 46% in 2025. The operational mood at component manufacturers is even more defensive: 74% are focused on cost reduction, and 70% are cutting capital expenditure. By June 2025, over 100 watchmaking-related companies were enrolled in Switzerland’s short-time working (RHT) compensation scheme, with hundreds of thousands of hours compensated monthly.
What This Means for Microbrands
Independent and microbrand watch companies are, paradoxically, both more vulnerable and better positioned than established mid-tier Swiss houses in this environment. Here is why.
The Entry-Level Squeeze Is Not Your Fight
The segment taking the hardest hit – export-priced below CHF 3,000, retail roughly CHF 6,000-8,000 – is precisely where Swatch Group subsidiaries like Tissot and Longines operate, where TAG Heuer competes, and where the mass-market Swiss offering lives. Microbrands that price in the $300-$1,500 range (outside the Swiss “Swiss Made” cost structure) are not in this segment in the same way. You are competing on value and authenticity, not on the “Swiss Made” label alone.
In fact, the Deloitte study notes that the rise of independent watch brands is seen by 31% of executives as the next big trend for the Swiss watch industry – the single highest-ranked answer, ahead of AI adoption (21%), digital product passports (11%), and brands expanding beyond watches (11%). That is not a marginal view; it is the mainstream read within the industry itself.
Source: Deloitte industry survey 2025
This is the independent watchmaking moment. The established playbook – distribution through authorised dealers, mono-brand boutiques, heavy ad spending – is being challenged from every direction. Smaller brands that built direct relationships with their customers, cultivated genuine communities, and operated lean have a structural advantage that is becoming more visible as the environment gets harder.
The Pre-Owned Boom Is Your Opportunity
One of the most significant findings in the study is the acceleration of the certified pre-owned (CPO) market – and it is directly relevant to microbrand buyers and sellers.
In 2025, 33% of consumers surveyed said they were likely to buy a pre-owned watch in the next 12 months. Among millennials and Gen Z, that figure hits 40% – twice the rate of Baby Boomers (20%). The primary driver is price (53% cite it), followed by access to discontinued or unique models (36%).
After the speculative frenzy of 2021-2023, pre-owned market prices have stabilised. Chrono24’s ChronoPulse index reports a 16% decline over three years but only a 0.6% drop in the last quarter of 2025. WatchCharts shows near-flat trends. The volatile flipping era is over; the secondary market is now entering a phase of broader, more sustainable consumer participation.
For microbrands, this is a double opportunity. First, it validates the desirability of independent watches as collectables – Bezel’s Giovanni Prigigallo notes that “independent brands are steadily expanding their footprint in the secondary market, with growing listings and solid turnover rates signalling rising collector interest.” Second, it means your buyers are increasingly comfortable with the pre-owned channel, which broadens the total addressable market for your watches beyond first-sale retail.
Source: Deloitte consumer survey 2025
Gen Z Is Redefining the Watch Buyer
The generational shift in watch consumption is real and accelerating. Traditional watch wearers as a share of the population fell from 46% in 2020 to just 26% in 2025. Smartwatches now dominate everyday wrists – particularly among women and younger generations. Among Gen Z and Alpha, 27% wear mainly smartwatches, compared to only 20% who wear mainly traditional watches.
Source: Deloitte consumer survey 2025
But the purchase intent numbers tell a different story. When asked whether they plan to buy a traditional watch in the next 12 months, the intent is almost equal to smartwatch intent: 54% for traditional, 53% for smartwatch, globally. Among Gen Z and Alpha, only an average of 7% said they had no intention of buying a watch at all – compared to 23% of baby boomers. Younger generations are not abandoning traditional watches; they are approaching them differently.
What they want is different from what older generations want. 35% of Gen Z value the in-store atmosphere and brand experience – not primarily product specs. They are motivated by uniqueness, sustainability signals, and community belonging. Karine Szegedi, Head of Consumer and Luxury & Fashion at Deloitte Switzerland, puts it plainly: “Generation Z is redefining the watch market. Their main criteria are affordability and uniqueness, as well as sustainability. The boom in pre-owned watches is no longer a niche trend. Rather, it is becoming one of the sector’s key growth drivers.”
This is precisely the microbrand value proposition. Limited runs. Distinctive design. Community-first marketing. Founders who are visible and accessible. These are not compensations for not being Rolex – they are competitive advantages in the market that is actually forming.
The Retail Divide: A Warning and an Opening
The study documents a striking tension in the retail landscape. 38% of consumers prefer to buy in multi-brand stores, while only 23% favour mono-brand boutiques. Yet 41% of brand executives plan to open a new mono-brand or flagship boutique in the next 12 months. The result is a retail environment where brands are pulling product away from multi-brand retail – the channel consumers actually prefer.
Source: Deloitte industry and consumer surveys 2025
The consequences are already visible. In March 2025, Les Ambassadeurs – a Geneva multi-brand institution since 1964 – closed its flagship store. Around the same time, O. Zbinden, another multi-brand Geneva landmark, announced a reorganisation into mono-brand spaces. Independent multi-brand retailers are losing access to key brand portfolios and finding their market position weaker by the quarter.
For microbrands, this is both a warning and an opening. The warning: if you rely on independent multi-brand retailers for distribution, their channel is under structural pressure. The opening: the authorised dealer model is being disrupted, and buyers who once walked into a Les Ambassadeurs to discover new brands are now looking for them elsewhere – online, at watch fairs, through community channels. Your direct relationship with your audience has never been more valuable.
Watch fairs and brand events are gaining ground as discovery channels. At Watches & Wonders 2023 and 2024, 25% of tickets were bought by people under 25. The fair created dedicated programming for younger visitors. This is the audience that will walk up to a microbrand table, ask genuine questions, and follow you on Instagram before they leave the hall.
The Digital Picture: AI, Social, and the Human Touch
AI is arriving in the watch industry in a deliberately pragmatic way. In 2025, 63% of executives plan to use AI for content creation, 59% for campaigns and marketing, and 57% for internal process improvement. 29% now plan to use AI to support creative product development – up from 20% in 2023. Hublot has reportedly experimented with AI in watch design, EveryWatch uses AI to analyse over half a million watch references across 250+ auction houses and 150+ online marketplaces. You can read 2024 mid-year report and our annual report of 2024 here.
Source: Deloitte industry survey 2025
On social media, the findings are nuanced. Friends and family remain the #1 purchase influence (25%), followed by brand websites (20%) and social media tied at 20%. Traditional media (print/digital) is at 13%. Only 2% of consumers say they prefer to buy directly through social media – social selling as a transactional channel has not arrived in watches. But social media as a discovery and trust-building channel is critical.
The TikTok phenomenon is real. A May 2025 TikTok study found that a quarter of TikTok luxury shoppers say they wait for reviews before buying – and these reviews function as authenticity checks, sizing guides, and community recommendations. “We note that our community actively follows individuals who speak with authenticity about the art of watchmaking. Not just big names, but passionate experts,” notes Nina Kuhn, Client Solutions Lead Switzerland at TikTok.
This matters directly to microbrand marketing. The currency of the next watch customer is not heritage advertising – it is authentic storytelling from credible community voices. That is a game where an independent brand with a genuine story and a founder willing to be present can compete with houses that have been making watches for 200 years.
Markets to Watch: India and Mexico
The traditional engines – the US and China – are struggling. China exports fell from CHF 2.1 billion in 2023 to a level 26% below 2021 pandemic highs. The US is absorbing a 39% tariff. But two markets are performing remarkably well.
Source: Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry FH, June 2026
India posted a 7% export increase in January-August 2025, and in the January-May 2026 FHS data, India sits at CHF 138.4M – up 32.7% year-on-year and 46.9% versus 2024. This is not a blip; it is the continuation of a trend that has made India the fastest-growing major watch market in the world. 79% of industry executives expect medium to strong growth there.
Mexico received its own dedicated chapter in the Deloitte 2025 study for the first time. In 2024, Switzerland exported CHF 337 million worth of watches to Mexico – nearly half of all Swiss watch exports to Central and South America. By January-May 2026, Mexico sits at CHF 146.1M in FHS data, up 21.0% year-on-year. Mexican consumers are twice as likely as the global average to purchase new watches via social media (5% vs. 2% for new, 13% vs. 4% for pre-owned). Design and exclusivity rank ahead of price as purchase drivers. And the local resale ecosystem – from Phillips and Sotheby’s to Instagram platforms like Watchlab – is thriving.
For microbrand brands considering market expansion, these two countries represent what the Deloitte study calls “a source of young, dynamic customers open to innovations” – which is another way of saying: the established players haven’t locked these markets down yet.
Looking Ahead: What to Expect When the 2026 Study Publishes
Deloitte typically publishes its annual study in October. The 2026 edition will cover data through mid-2026 and will be shaped by the full year of trading under the 39% US tariff regime. Here is what the current data allows us to predict with reasonable confidence.
US exports will show a dramatic annual decline. The Jan-May 2026 FHS numbers already show -18.5% versus 2025. The back half of 2025 was still inflated by pre-tariff stockpiling; the back half of 2026 will have no such buffer. Full-year 2026 US exports could be 20-25% below 2025 levels in value.
India will likely break into the top 10 export markets. At the current trajectory, India could surpass Italy (currently #10 at CHF 402M in Jan-May 2026) within a year or two. A dedicated India chapter in the 2026 Deloitte study seems probable.
The entry-level segment will be further rationalised. Swatch Group’s brand portfolio decisions, further Carl F. Bucherer wind-down activity, and continued pressure on component manufacturers will likely lead to additional consolidation and brand retirements in the CHF 200-800 export price tier.
Pre-owned will move closer to primary retail parity in consumer mindset. The generational data is unambiguous. By the time the 2026 study is published, Gen Z pre-owned intent may well exceed 45%, and certified pre-owned programmes will be standard across most major retail environments.
AI creative adoption will accelerate. The 29% who planned to use AI for product development in 2025 will likely cross 40% in the 2026 survey. The question will shift from “whether” to “how effectively.”
Independent brands will outperform their establishment peers in sentiment. The Deloitte study already notes that “almost no new players have entered the market since 2023 – the exceptions are mostly micro-brands.” That quiet observation hides a significant dynamic: while large houses are restructuring leadership and cutting costs, independent watchmakers are largely continuing to grow. The 2025 Independent Watchmaking Report found that 60% of companies producing fewer than 10,000 watches annually expected to sell more in 2025 than in 2024. Expect this to be a prominent theme in the 2026 study.
The Bottom Line for MBWW Readers
The Swiss watch industry is under genuine, multidirectional pressure. But the nature of that pressure is selective. It bears hardest on mid-tier volume Swiss producers, on independent multi-brand retailers, and on any business that depends on the US as its primary market without ability to absorb a 39% landed-cost increase.
It bears much more lightly – and in some cases, not at all – on independent microbrand and small-batch watchmakers who sell direct, price outside the squashed mid-tier, and communicate authentically to communities who came to them specifically because they weren’t looking for another Tissot.
The data from Deloitte and the FHS is, if you read it carefully, a map of opportunity as much as a map of stress. The next big trend in this industry, by the industry’s own consensus, is the rise of independent watch brands. The fastest-growing customer segment values uniqueness, sustainability, and community above brand heritage. The pre-owned market is legitimising interest in independent watches as collectables.
The time under pressure, it turns out, may be less uncomfortable for the independents than it is for the houses with the most to lose.
Sources and Credits
- Deloitte Switzerland – Swiss Watch Industry Study 2025: Time under Pressure, October 2025. Authors: Karine Szegedi, Benjamin Morin, Silvio Jobin, Teresa Hug Alonso, Ashley Mueller, Kevin Capellini. deloitte.com
- Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry FH – World Distribution of Swiss Watch Exports, January-May 2026, published June 2026. fhs.swiss
- Deloitte Switzerland Press Release – “Swiss watch industry: In-store purchases surpass online retail, pre-owned market on the rise,” 8 October 2025.
- Export and market data: Federal Office for Customs and Border Security (FOCBS) / Federal Statistical Office (FSO), Switzerland.
- Secondary market index data: WatchCharts Overall Market Index, Chrono24 ChronoPulse, Subdial x Bloomberg’s Watch Index.
All percentage figures, survey data, and market statistics cited in this article are drawn directly from the above sources. Charts are editorial recreations of data published in the Deloitte Swiss Watch Industry Study 2025 and the FHS June 2026 statistical release. Full methodology details are available in the original publications.