Hello, watch community.
Let’s get straight to the number that’s rattling the entire watch industry today: -55.6%.
That isn’t a typo. A few moths after the announcement, some optimists said that it will quickly disappear in the same way it came, but now we see the catastrophic drop in Swiss watch exports to the United States for September 2025, according to the just-released report from the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FHS). After months of speculation, we are now seeing the first brutal, real-world impact of the 39% “Swiss Made” tariff that took effect on August 7th.
All that “growth” we saw in early summer? It’s now clear it was just a frantic dash by distributors to stockpile inventory before the gates slammed shut. That illusion has vanished, replaced by the cold, hard math of a market in shock.
For American collectors, the reality is stark: any new “Swiss Made” watch arriving on US shores is now 39% more expensive, by law. But as the US market – long the industry’s cash cow – hits a brick wall, a fascinating new map is being drawn.
The Great Tariff Detour
While US imports fell off a cliff, the same FHS report showed two stunning outliers.
- Swiss watch exports to Canada jumped 18%.
- Swiss watch exports to Mexico rocketed by 44%.
This isn’t a coincidence. It’s a strategic reroute. We are witnessing the real-time creation of “watch tourism,” where savvy American buyers find it cheaper to book a flight, buy their desired timepiece in a neighboring country, and fly home, rather than pay the debilitating tax.
The desire for fine timepieces hasn’t evaporated; it’s just become migratory.
This has also caused a global power shift. With the US market effectively kneecapped, the UK has surged to become the #1 global market for Swiss watches (up 15.2%), with Japan following closely behind. The message is clear: the luxury giants are already diverting their most desirable allocations to where the market is stable (like in the last few years).
The Microbrand Safe Harbor
So, where does this leave the American collector? Frustrated. Priced-out. And looking for alternatives to Swiss watches.
This is where our world – the world of independents and microbrands – comes in.
Let’s look at that tariff again. It is incredibly specific. It targets products labeled “Swiss Made.”
This political decision, aimed at luxury conglomerates, has inadvertently created the single greatest opportunity for the independent scene in modern history.
Think about the brands we champion:
- The American-assembled brand using a Japanese Miyota movement.
- The German brand using a Swiss Sellita but cased in Glashütte.
- The innovative Hong Kong-based brand that offers incredible value.
None of these are subject to the 39% tariff.
For years, the “value proposition” of a microbrand was about getting more for your money – better specs, unique design, and a personal connection. Now, that value proposition is no longer just a bonus; it’s an enormous, tangible, financial imperative.
Why pay a 39% premium for a label when you can get a watch with the exact same movement, built with just as much passion, from an independent maker for a fraction of the cost?
The Path Forward
The Swiss giants are now caught in a geopolitical mess, forced to choose between alienating their biggest market or absorbing crippling costs.
For the rest of us, the path is clear. As mainstream collectors begin to explore alternatives out of sheer necessity, they are going to discover what we’ve known all along: that the most exciting, innovative, and welcoming corner of horology exists right here.
The global map has been redrawn, and for independent watchmaking, the future has never looked more promising. (click here if you think of starting your own watch brand)
This new reality is a game-changer.
- Does this 55.6% drop surprise you?
- For our US readers: Are you now officially looking at non-Swiss-Made microbrands for your next purchase?
- Have you ever considered a “watch trip” to avoid taxes?
The Swiss Watch Tariff Impact Infographic
The North American Shuffle
The New Reality of US Tariffs on the Swiss Watch Industry
Swiss Watch Exports to USA (Sept 2025 vs Sept 2024)
-55.6%
Following the new 39% “Swiss Made” tariff effective August 2025, the US market, long the industry’s leader, experienced a catastrophic drop. This data from the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FHS) reflects the first real-world impact of the new policy, ending months of pre-tariff inventory stockpiling.
The Cause: The New 39% “Swiss Made” Tariff
OLD POLICY
“$800 De Minimis” Rule
0%
Tax on many imports under $800
NEW POLICY (Aug 2025)
Targeted “Swiss Made” Tariff
39%
New tax on all “Swiss Made” watches
The Great Tariff Detour
While US imports collapsed, a fascinating reroute emerged. American buyers, facing a 39% price hike, appear to be creating “watch tourism,” traveling to neighboring countries to purchase. This is reflected in the dramatic export spikes to Canada and Mexico in the same month.
Global Power Shift: Top Growing Markets (Sept 2025)
With the US market artificially suppressed, luxury giants are diverting allocations. The UK surged to the #1 global market. Other regions are showing renewed dynamism as the global map is redrawn, with Mexico leading the growth charge.
The Microbrand Safe Harbor
The tariff is highly specific: it only targets products labeled “Swiss Made.” This has inadvertently created a massive financial incentive for US collectors to explore independent and microbrands that use non-Swiss components or assembly, as they are not subject to the 39% tax.
PATH 1: “SWISS MADE”
e.g., Swiss Movement, Cased in Switzerland
+39%
US TARIFF APPLIED
PATH 2: NOT “SWISS MADE”
e.g., Japanese Movement, German Assembly, US Assembled
+0%
NO TARIFF APPLIED