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My last article analysing Kickstarter data on watch projects raised some interesting questions and requests for more data so I got stuck in again to see what insights I could pull from the data set.

Success vs Failure graph

Like I said in my article, this is an imprecise analysis that is better suited to showing trends than exact numbers. Due to the human factor of filtering projects manually I missed a few smart watch and strap projects in my original analysis. I’ve trimmed those for this second go but the same caveats apply: due to the filtering required to isolate watch projects, a small number of non qualifying projects may have slipped through. I accept that I may be accused of tweaking the numbers to support my position and my only response is that you are welcome to analyse the data for yourself, I have been open about my data sources and filtering methods. I welcome an alternative analysis of the data to either corroborate or refute my findings.

That all said, here’s the updated figures and some “funding basket” breakdowns.

Success vs Failure by year with success rate of all projects:

Success vs Failure

and in graph form:

Success vs Failure graph

All projects, successful or not by the amount of money raised at the close of the project whether cancelled, suspended, funded or failed: (Values in USD)

projects by funding basket

and graphed:

projects by funding basket graph

So my thoughts:

  • The success rate did drop by 12% between 2014 and 2015 but total projects doubled, That’s not an unreasonable decline given the increase in total projects. I would suspect these are are poorly organised “me too” projects.
  • That massive spike in sub 10k projects is interesting, I’ll take a closer look at what those projects are. My suspicion is that its mostly the failed projects from 2015 and the larger number of “minimalist quartz watches redefining luxury while disrupting the industry by cutting out the middleman” that sprouted like mushrooms last year.
  • While all baskets have grown in numbers, those really successful projects may be responsible for the bulk of the growth in total funds raised. It doesn’t take very many of them!